Probably Stolen Guide

All 9 Starting Scenarios – Which One to Pick

Updated · Basics

Quick answer

There are 9 starting scenarios: Apprentice (generalist — the developers' pick for beginners), Water Merchant, Fence, Gunsmith, Chemist, Hydroponic Farmer, Aquafarmer, Rat Wrangler and Rock Bottom (start with nothing, maximum difficulty). After the scenario you pick one of 4 difficulties and spend points on starting perks — negative perks give you points to spend on positive ones. Start with Apprentice; play Rock Bottom only for the two From Nothing achievements.

The Starting Perks screen with available perks and the perks selected for a run
Starting Perks screen. Screenshot © Questing Goose Studio / tinyBuild (official Steam store media)

The 9 starts at a glance

Start What you begin with (developers’ description) The trouble it brings Good for
Apprentice A generalist shop; upgrade as you go Nothing specific First run
Water Merchant Water to test, purify and re-label — “pure water is more expensive than gold” Liability if bad water hurts someone Fast money once water is cheap to make — see water
Fence Stolen goods — “move fast, stay invisible” Raids and confiscation Players who like hiding stock
Gunsmith A Class 1 weapon permit, firearms and ammunition Security inspections High margins
Chemist Chemistry lab equipment and closely guarded recipes Addiction; customers who come back Chemistry and the Say My Name achievement
Hydroponic Farmer Hydroponic machines and farming supplies; ends with genetically modified crops Some crops people “probably shouldn’t buy” The Green Thumb achievement
Aquafarmer Tilapia and recirculating aquaculture systems Water quality and fish food decide what fish you get Patient players
Rat Wrangler Rats — “Can you grow a healthy 2x3 rat?” — The “hidden scenario” — unlocks We Have Rats!
Rock Bottom Nothing at all Maximum difficulty The From Nothing achievements

The store page sums up the trade-off: weapons bring inspections, chemicals bring addiction, water brings liability, contraband brings raids. The scenario only sets how you start — you can unlock other product lines later.

Difficulty

Difficulty selection screen showing three of the difficulty columns
Difficulty screen. Screenshot © Questing Goose Studio / tinyBuild (official Steam store media)

There are 4 difficulties, picked after the scenario:

Difficulty Also called Rent rise per week Deed price Rent graces
Price Gouge Cozy ~2% 12,000 1
Mark Up Normal 5% 12,000 1
Thin Margins Hard 10% 24,000 0
Red Ink Challenge 10% 36,000 0

Full breakdown in loans and rent. Patch 1.0.0.2 lowered Dr. Jackson’s markup from 25% to 15% on Normal, and 1.0.0.1 made the Merchant state the discount he really takes on your difficulty.

Starting perks

Perks are bought with points; taking negative perks gives you more points for positive ones (some perks can’t be combined). The developers’ own warning for a first run: don’t take Sentinel Collapse Disorder — it’s a negative perk that ends the run if you skip Immunivax (endings). The full list and the best picks are on the perks page.

Coming later

Junker, Organ Trader (“for the Butcher fans”) and Street Food Vendor are announced as free updates — see updates.

FAQ

What is the best starting scenario in Probably Stolen?

For a first run, Apprentice: the developers describe it as the generalist start that's 'best for beginners' and lets you learn at your own pace. Specialist starts make more money in one product line but bring that line's specific trouble — inspections for guns, addiction for chemicals, liability for water.

What is the hidden scenario in Probably Stolen?

It's the Rat Wrangler start — it was secret during the playtest and made visible in patch 48.3.12, and starting a run with it unlocks We Have Rats! (5.0% of players on Nov 1). A Chinese 100% achievement guide on Steam confirms the hidden scenario is the rat start.

Is Rock Bottom worth playing?

Only once you know the game. You start with 0 credits, and the developers call it maximum difficulty. The tutorial isn't available with it (nor with Fence, Gunsmith or Chemist). It's required for From Nothing (1.1% of players) and, on Thin Margins, From Nothing, the Hard Way (0.7%).

Will there be more starting scenarios?

Yes — the developers have announced Junker ('shortly after launch'), Organ Trader and Street Food Vendor as free updates. No dates yet.

Related guides

Sources

Checked against the current version on · High confidence — confirmed by the developers or two independent sources. Spotted something outdated? Tell us.

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